NHL Picks, Thu 02/20. This season: + $13 717 (300-252-53)

[Mathemagician]

Today’s investments:

Toronto 0.5 -128 / estimate -149 / wager $300
Vancouver ML +105 / estimate -118 / wager $300

Click here for Mathemagician’s detailed track record and more information for NHL 2002-2003

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Mathemagician’s analysis is based on many years experience of odds making in NHL and other sports. Methods used in odds making process include careful pre-season analysis, continuous measuring of each teams abilities using power ratings and considering the daily news in each individual game.

The pre-season analysis includes mathematical and statistical analysis and determination of the changes caused by the transactions. The power rating database is always updated after each game and every published estimate is adjusted to consider injuries, fatigue caused by the schedule, different motivations and many other factors.

The pick is profitable in the long run only if the current price is higher than the estimate. Otherwise the bet is not worth placing.

 

[phoenix28]

I looked over your totals for this season and i researched a little and i noticed that when your total lines is between 20-40 cents off from the books lines you have gone 89-55 for 28 or 29 units which is 60 percent at -110 (give or take as I probably didn't add things up perfectly) while when yor lines were 40 cents or more or between 10-20 cents it was around 33-39 at -110 lines. My question is from your history of making picks in prior seasons have you noticed that when your lines are 20 -40 cents off from the bookmaker has it performed consistantly better then 40 cents or above or from 10-20 cents. Also historically how much better have you done with sides then totals?

[This message was edited by phoenix28 on 02-21-03 at 01:36 AM.]

 

[Mathemagician]

The number of games with line difference other than 20-40 cents seems to be quite small. Only 72 games in the record you posted. That is not enough to make any significant conclusions.

Historically we have made profit with both sides and totals, but we have performed much better with sides. I don't have any numbers with me right now. Just remember to use smaller stakes with totals.